Hurricane Joaquin

Hurricane Joaquin has been a challenging forecast to say the least. Over the last week, inconsistency in Joaquin's track has plagued weather forecast models. Over the last two days, these models have come into agreement and it looks as though the US will be spared a landfalling hurricane this weekend.

Of great concern is the enormous amounts of rain that have saturated parts of the east coast over the last 10 days. Below is a graphic that shows rainfall over the past week.

The same region that has received so much rain recently is forecast to receive an additional round of flooding rains - not from Hurricane Joaquin. In addition to impacts on agriculture, the flood risk is potentially life threatening. Below is the forecast precipitation over Friday through Sunday. 

Throughout Joaquin's life, the forecasting models we use for Morning Farm Report have been consistent in saying Joaquin would not reach the US mainland. Our models forecasted large amounts of tropical rain for South Carolina, but repeatedly showed North Carolina and Virginia dodging the majority of Joaquin's effects.